Nepal III - Which model will Prachanda and his Maoists follow ?

Which model will Prachanda and his Maoists follow? Will it be the Chinese, the Cuban or the Vietnamese model? If one goes by his past statements and interviews, he is likely to follow a mix of the Chinese and Cuban models, and not the Vietnamese. He has always been attracted by the idea of Nepal serving as a rear base for exporting Maoist revolution to India. He also believes that a destabilised India preoccupied with internal security as being in the long-term interests of Nepal. We should not allow his present charm offensive towards India make us forget his past.
Till now, our military planners have been worried over the dangers of India being confronted one day with a two-front war -- with Pakistan and China. We now have to think seriously about the dangers of a three-front war with Pakistan, China and Nepal.
Once Communists come to power -- through an armed revolution or through the ballot box -- they try to see that nobody can dislodge them. There have been exceptions, of course. Nicaragua, for example. But, there the Communists were prevented from entrenching themselves through strong US support for non-Communist elements.
It is neither in the interests of Nepal nor of India for the Maoists to entrench themselves in power and convert the RNA into the PLA of Nepal and turn Nepal into a rear base to help the Maoists in India. The plans of the Maoists for a presidential form of Government in Nepal with all powers concentrated in the hands of Prachanda and with the RNA replaced by the PLA should be thwarted.
All genuinely democratic forces in Nepal and the military leadership should join hands to prevent the Communists from carrying out their long-term designs. The Communists will fight back ferociously all attempts to deny them the fruits of power. The fear of a possibly bloody riposte by the Communists should not deter those worried over the implications of the Maoists' plan from acting before it is too late.
Maoists led by Prachanda coming to power, and sticking to it, is in the interest of neither Nepal nor India. Sooner or later, they will export their 'revolution' to India. This must be prevented at all cost: If it means an Army takeover of Nepal, so be it
B Raman, The Pioneer, 29/04/2008